The Steps In The Forecasting Process
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Instructions:
- Answer all questions clearly.
- You may use extra space to write your answers as appropriate needed.
- Show the final answer in the space provided for it where applicable.
- There are three questions in this assessment.
- Following table shows the monthly sales of a newly introduced game console at a retail store:
| Month | Number of products Sold | Forecast using Naïve | Error | Forecast using 4 period moving average | Error |
| 1 | 140 | ||||
| 2 | 154 | ||||
| 3 | 173 | ||||
| 4 | 188 | ||||
| 5 | 206 | ||||
| 6 | 226 | ||||
| 7 | 230 | ||||
| 8 |
Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show your calculations.
- What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on naïve approach? (10 Points)
ANS:
- What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on 4 period moving average? (15 Points)
ANS:
- Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MAD? (25 Points)
ANS:
- What are the steps in the forecasting process? Describe what happens in each step to make a good forecast? And how do you evaluate if it is a good forecast? (25 Points)
- A manufacturing operation working 10 hrs a day produces 1000 units. These units were produced by 7 workers who used 500 pounds of materials. Workers have an hourly wage of KWD10, and material cost is KWD5 per pound. The Overhead is 2 times labor cost.
- Compute the labor productivity in Units/labor-hrs (10 Points)
- Compute the multifactor productivity of the operation (15 Points)
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